Perspective 105. Is Netanyahu Losing Ground?

The protests against Israel’s new coalition government have been unprecedented in scope and duration. Hundreds of thousands have taken to the streets in a country of nine and a half million. But has this outcry weakened the position of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who together with his allies won a clear majority of Knesset seats (64 of 120) in an election held less than six months ago?

Yes. Recent polls show a sharp drop of support for Netanyahu’s own party, Likud, and for his Religious Zionist partners. Support for his other partners, the haredi (ultra-orthodox) parties, were little changed since their party base is very clearly defined and stable. (A reminder to non-Israeli readers: Israelis vote for parties, not for candidates.)

In perspective, polls taken in the last week show the governing coalition falling to a range of 52-56 seats – if respondents were voting on the day they were polled. (Israeli polling is accurate as such things go, but obviously cannot account for changes over time.). This would leave Netanyahu short of a majority with his current coalition, and the likelihood of his attracting additional partners is dismal. Remember, it was the dislike of working with Bibi, even among other right-wing leaders, that led to five elections within three and a half years.

But would the opposition, with (arithmetically) a majority of 64-68 seats, be able to form a government if an election were held now? The two centrist parties would have 43-48 seats. They could pull in what’s left of the left – with a magnificent total of 4-6 seats. The remaining anti-Netanyahu right-wing party would give them another 5-6 seats. They would most likely need the support of at least one of the two Arab parties (5 seats each).

This was the same rickety structure that was assembled by Naftali Bennett in 2021, and lasted all of a year. Netanyahu could, once again, simply wait for its downfall.

But the chances that the current coalition will crumble, given the scope of protest and its falling popularity, remain remote. Netanyahu and his partners also follow the polls, and are in no rush for an election to test their accuracy. The haredi parties and the far right have never had it so good; their wish lists are being transformed into government policy. The only likely road to early elections would be a split within Likud, with its roots in the Revisionist Zionist fight for legality and legitimacy against sometimes arbitrary Labor Zionism.

But while some Likud figures have tried to apply the brakes to the “judicial reform,” this does not necessarily translate into support for early elections. Nor is there great public clamor to return to polls for a sixth time. The general mood seems to be: maspik kvar. Enough already.