Perspective 110. Russia in the 2016 Election: The First Trump Scandal?
As indictments against former President Trump multiply, we must not lose sight of the mischief that brought him to office in the first place. In 2016 Russia launched a massive subterranean campaign to influence the presidential election in Trump’s favor. Was this campaign a factor in Trump’s narrow victory?
Yes. Of course in a close election the margin of victory can be attributed, quite plausibly, to any single one of a number of influential factors. Trump won in the electoral college, despite drawing fewer votes overall, by winning three key states by a total of fewer than 80,000 votes – less than a tenth of one percent of all votes cast. And on Facebook alone, a reported 126 million Americans saw fake Russian-generated news, such as the claim that Hillary Clinton was hiding serious health problems. James Clapper, former Director of National Intelligence, has said that “it strains credulity to think that the Russians didn’t turn the election.”
In perspective, the bigger scandal is that Donald Trump was the first President to attempt a coup d’état in order to remain in office -- but he was also probably the first president to be elected by foreign interference. The scope of the Russian endeavor was enormous, as documented by the FBI, by the report of Special Counsel Robert Mueller, and by the Republican-led Senate Intelligence Committee.
What the Russians call “dezinformatsiya” had been a trademarkl of Russian governments for centuries; the fake “Protocols of the Elders of Zion” were invented by the tsarist secret police. Vladimir Putin, who was a KGB agent before taking over Russia, clearly sees dirty tricks as standard procedure. He has also clearly stated his strong preference for Trump in 2016. And why not, given the Donald’s odd romance with Putin?
Russian government hackers created thousands of fake, supposedly American, social media accounts smearing Hillary and fomenting racism and nativism to activate Trump’s right-wing constituency. Accounts aimed at discouraging African-American support of Clinton reportedly gained 1.2 million followers, while racist sites attracted around 1.4 million. Russian military intelligence hacked the files of the Democratic Party and released damaging material to a variety of internet outlets.
The Mueller investigation documented more than 140 contacts between Trump campaign officials and Russian government agents. This in itself was not criminal, though two Trump associates were convicted for lying about it (and were subsequently pardoned by Trump). Trump also fired FBI Director James Comey in an apparent effort to stall investigation into the Russian ties.
But actually the Trump campaign did not need to instigate the Russians. Moscow needed no encouragement; the Trump team had only to observe and admire. “Russia, if you’re listening,” Trump exhorted at one point, “find the 30,000 emails” (that Hillary was supposedly hiding).
In the end, Mueller did indict 26 (unreachable) Russians for violations of U.S. law. He did not believe, however, that he could not indict a sitting president. Instead, he made it clear that his report did not exonerate Trump, and hinted very strongly that a process other than criminal justice could (should?) be invoked. Impeachment maybe?
Too late for that now, but if the Donald remains a serious candidate in 2024 it is past time to shine a strong light on the peculiar tie between him and Vladimir.