Perspective 111. Another intifada: On the Horizon?

Following recent violent clashes, Israel’s most-hawkish-ever government is reportedly considering a broad military operation in the occupied territories to prevent – or contain? -- the eruption of another intifada (uprising). Of course such an operation might in itself trigger the intifada it supposedly seeks to prevent. But apart from that, are there signs that the Palestinian population may in any event be on the verge of a violent uprising?

Yes. Since December Israel has had a government committed to full support of Jewish settlers on the West Bank, with settler leaders in key cabinet posts. This has reinforced the view among Palestinians that the peace process is dead, that negotiation with Israel is pointless, and that “armed struggle” is the only option left for Arab residents of the West Bank and Gaza.

In perspective, Palestinian support for a military solution has been on the rise since the collapse of the Oslo peace process. As measured by the leading Palestinian survey organization (Palestine Center for Policy and Survey Research), at present a majority (53 percent) favor a return to armed confrontation and intifada.

The push for military action has moved beyond the control of the Palestinian Authority (PA), which controls Arab areas of the West Bank, and even beyond Hamas control in Gaza. Smaller local armed groups, such as the “Lions’ Den” and the “Jenin Battalion”, have emerged and are acting on their own. A full 71 percent of the Palestinian public favor the formation of such groups and 86 percent oppose efforts of the PA to keep them from attacking Israeli targets.

So, not surprisingly, 51 percent expect that this will lead to the eruption of a third armed intifada. A majority favor it, a majority expect it, so who would bet against it?

In fact, the PA itself has become so unpopular that 49 percent of the respondents want to see it dissolved. Around three-quarters oppose the continuation of Mahmud Abbas as PA President (there have been no presidential elections since 2005). And apparently recent rocket attacks from Gaza came not from Hamas forces, but from even more radical groups operating there.

There are areas of West Bank cities (such as Nablus and Jenin) over which PA security forces have reportedly lost control. So it is no surprise that every foray by the Israeli army into Arab towns and cities, to make arrests or stop attacks, leads to pitched battles.

And what does this mean for the moribund peace process? Support for a two-state solution – once favored by an overwhelming majority of West Bank and Gaza Palestinians – now stands at a new low of 28 percent. Fully 71 percent believe that a two-state solution is no longer possible because of the growth of Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

And when hope is gone, what remains? We may be about to find out.