Perspective 114. The U.S.-Saudi-Israeli Deal: Will It Happen?
Negotiations are underway for a revolutionary transaction that would reshape the Middle East: a U.S.-Saudi security pact, normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations, and preservation of hopes for a two-state solution between Israelis and Palestinians. Something for everyone, except the zealots on all sides. But is agreement likely?
No, not really. The Saudis might get what they want from the United States, but they won’t normalize relations with Israel without significant Israeli concessions to the Palestinians. And Israel now has its most hawkish government ever, committed in theory to annexation of the West Bank, ending any hope a Palestinian state alongside Israel – a two-state solution. The timing couldn’t be worse.
In perspective, the detachment of Arab states from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a long-term process going back to the Arab defeat in the 1967 war. In those days it was the “Arab-Israeli” conflict. Now we have peace treaties between Israel and two of its Arab neighbors, as well as the “Abraham Accords” between Israel and three peripheral Arab states. Israeli-Saudi relations would further legitimize Israel for the rest of the Arab world and the broader Muslim world.
What would the Saudis gain? They are asking for a U.S. security guarantee equivalent to NATO membership, for acquiescence in a civilian nuclear program, and of course for more advanced weapons. All of this is negotiable if the U.S. gets a new Middle East with Israelis and Arab both solidly aligned together against the pyromaniacs of Teheran – Iran also being a factor driving the Saudis and others toward the U.S. – and Israel.
In 2002 the Arab League offered Israel recognition and peace if it withdrew from territories occupied in 1967 and gave Palestinians the right of self-determination. The sticking point for Israel then was return to the pre-1967 lines, giving up East Jerusalem including the Old City. Could the Saudi regime demand less than that today? Possibly, but they will not abandon the Palestinians completely. Indications are that minimally they will insist on ending expansion of Jewish settlements in the West Bank, reversing the legalization of unauthorized outposts there, and clarifying that Area C – presently under complete Israeli control – will not be annexed.
But the present Israeli government is committed, in principle, to the exact reverse of all these possible concessions. To negotiate seriously on this basis, Prime Minister Netanyahu would have to dismantle his government, jettison his coalition partners, and make common cause with Israel’s centrists. And also, by the way, forget about that judicial overhaul. Not bloody likely.
Some commentators add that even if the Saudis were to completely abandon the Palestinians, a deal that let Israel proceed with creeping annexation of the West Bank might not fly in Washington! A U.S.-Saudi security pact would require approval by the Senate, and prominent Democrats, not great fans of Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Sultan, might use the lack of concessions to Palestinians to block the whole package. For years Netanyahu has cozied up to the Republicans, souring many Democrats and pushing them into greater support for the Palestinians. In any event, they (and Biden as well) want to preserve what’s left of the prospects for a two-state solution.
And make no mistake, current Israeli policies make it more difficult with each passing year to carve out a viable Palestinian state. Faced with a choice between entrenchment in the West Bank or peace with Saudi Arabis and the broader Muslim world, it’s all too clear where Bibi is headed. The two-state solution, already on life support, will expire completely.
I hope I’m wrong.