Perspective 116. Israel's Libya Fiasco: A Fatal Mistake?
Israel’s revelation of a meeting between Foreign Minister Eli Cohen and Libyan Foreign Minister Najla Al-Mangoush ended badly, with Ms. Al-Mangoush having to flee her country. Is this the most costly mistake made so far by Israel’s bumbling government?
No. Publicly bragging about the meeting was indeed a bonehead move, but is far outstripped in consequence by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s attacks on Israeli democracy. Moreover, it is unlikely that the Libyan connection, even if kept under wraps, would have led to a break-through.
In perspective, normalization of Israeli relations with Arab and Muslim nations has been proceeding since the 1967 war. Realizing that they could not destroy Israel militarily – and aware of Israel’s nuclear bomb-in-the-basement – warring Arab states stood down. Egypt and Jordan signed peace treaties, and in 1993 mainstream Palestinian leadership exchanged mutual recognition with Israel. And if the PLO had relations with Israel, why couldn’t Arab or Muslim states do the same?
So the first circle of normalization was, not surprisingly, the neighboring Arab states that stood toe-to-toe with Israel and (in the case of Egypt) had territory to gain back. (Syria remained the exception, carrying with it Lebanon). The second circle was Arab states that had no territorial issues with Israel but did have a common interest: opposition to Iran and radical Islamism. This also reinforced cooperation with Egypt and Jordan, now practically allies, as well as generating extensive informal contact with the Gulf states – and, finally, the Abraham Accords. Netanyahu even met discreetly with Saudi Crown Prince (and de facto ruler) Mohammed bin Salman in 2021, but at that time he had the common sense not to talk about it.
More distant Muslim states would be the next logical circle of normalization, as the only real obstacle is sympathy for fellow believers. But on the other hand, since they also have little to gain, these states are in no rush to shake hands. The various “stans” of central Asia, as well as Turkey, have diplomatic relations with Israel, but Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Somalia and others are waiting for better news on the Palestinian front.
This leaves Arab states with no need to deal with Israel and little or nothing to gain by doing so, but still strongly identifying with the Palestinians, as the last circle of normalization. And into this category falls Libya. This is also a nation dominated for many years by the radical rhetoric of Muamar Qaddafi and presently torn in half by civil war. Either side in that conflict will gleefully use the Palestinian issue against the other if it openly engages with Israel.
Of course either side would also be glad of secret support from Israel – provided it remains secret! There is reliable information that the son of the dominant figure in the east – Khalifa Haftar – secretly visited Israel for this purpose in 2021. And that would be the apparent reason for the government of the west – the so-called Government of National Unity – to have a secret meeting with the Foreign Minister of Israel. Provided, again, that it remains secret.
So Bibi blew this one. But in any event there was next to no prospect that Libya would publicly join the Abraham Accords together with Arab states facing iran or the Islamists.
There is, however, some likely damage from the blunder. Other Arab or Muslim states that might have been in the next circle of normalization may be deterred, for the time being, by the vociferous outburst that was triggered in Libya.