Perspective 126. After the War: Can Netanyahu Hang On?

Israelis have pulled together in their response to the October 7 Hamas assault, but are also angry toward their own government for being caught by surprise and for the misbegotten policies that helped create the Gaza snakepit in the first place. New elections can be put off for another three years, in theory. But can Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last that long?

No, almost certainly not. Israelis know how to distinguish between the interests of the nation and the clamor of particular policy-makers. When the fighting ends – although tragically it may take months – there will be a final accounting and a tide of protest that will swamp Bibi’s ship. And it wasn’t all that seaworthy before.

In perspective, Israeli politics was already unstable because of controversy surrounding Netanyahu. Right-wing and religious parties together have dominated in almost all elections since 1977 (two-thirds of Israelis call themselves “rightists”). Yet Israel had to endure five elections in three and a half years because key right-wing figures, whom Netanyahu had alienated, refused to work with him.

And Netanyahu won the last of these elections only because he mobilized the far right and gave the haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties everything they desired. Even so, Bibi and his allies gained only 48 percent of the vote, earning a slight majority of Knesset seats only because far-right parties merged to pass the threshold and avoid wasting votes, while left and Arab parties failed this simple test of arithmetic.

So Netanyahu’s position was wobbly from the first, and his assault on Israel’s judiciary only weakened it further. Polls showed that had elections been held this summer, before the war, the government would have lost ten or more seats and would be gone. Of course Netanyahu was not about to call elections.

But the impact of the October 7 massacre has been even more devastating.

In the weekly Ma’ariv poll of Nov. 8-9, Netanyahu’s Likud would win only 18 seats, down by almost half, if elections were held that day, while the centrist National Union would win 40. The current government would fall from 64 seats to 43. In another survey, 52 percent favored National Union leader Benny Gantz as Prime Minister and only 26 percent opted for Netanyahu.

More to the point, fully 76 percent of the Israeli public believe that Netanyahu should resign immediately or at the end of the war. Most dismaying for Bibi, this includes a majority of those who identify with Likud. Even Israel Today, the newspaper established by an American billionaire to serve as Netanyahu’s mouthpiece, has called for him to step down.

And with 64 percent of those surveyed favoring new elections immediately after the war, it may not matter whether Netanyahu can withstand the pressure or not. One way or another, he will be gone.