Perspective 138. Palestinian Opinion: A Hamas Victory?

The tactical success of the Hamas attack on October 7, and the tragic casualties inflicted on the population of Gaza since then, could be expected to drive Palestinians into the arms of Hamas. Has this in fact happened?

No, at least not on the anticipated scale. While support for Hamas has increased modestly since the war began, it still falls short of a majority and the basic structure of Palestinian public opinion has not shifted that much. And about half of Palestinians still choose a two-state solution to the conflict when asked their preference (with slightly greater support in Gaza than in the West Bank!).

In perspective, it is possible to answer this question thanks to the work of the Palestinian Center for Survey and Policy Research (PSR), a highly reputable professional survey organization that has tracked Palestinian opinion over the decades. PSR has been able to conduct surveys in Gaza as well as the West Bank, even under Hamas rule. Its latest poll was carried out during the cease-fire in Gaza in late November, roughly six weeks after the war began.

One initial finding, seeming to confirm a surge of support for Hamas, was that 72 percent of West Bank and Gaza respondents thought that the attack of October 7 was “correct.” But it turns out that this satisfaction in seeing Israel humiliated did not carry over into changes in basic orientation.

Over time PSR surveys have established that about one-fifth of Palestinians support Islamist movements (mainly Hamas) and about two-fifths identify with “nationalist” movements, mainly Fatah, the core of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and the Palestinian Authority (PA). The rest dislike both of these blocs.

The war shifted the needle somewhat: in November 35 percent said they would vote for Hamas, up from 21 percent in the previous poll. Interestingly, the shift was greater in the West Bank (13 to 31 percent) than in the Gaza war zone itself (34 to 41 percent). It should be pointed out that the popularity of Hamas also increased during the four previous rounds of fighting with Israel, but returned to previous levels after the fighting stopped.

Even more strikingly, fully 48 percent either refused to vote or chose “none of the above.”

The underlying problem is that the PA, with the theoretical support of at least two-fifths of the Palestinian public, remains hugely unpopular because of its perceived weakness and corruption. 88 percent want PA President Mahmoud Abbas to resign. On the other hand, in a three-way vote for PA President, Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti, currently imprisoned in Israel, would receive 47 percent of the vote against 43 percent for Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and a pitiful 7 percent for Abbas.

Asked to choose among solutions to the conflict, 51 percent preferred a two-state solution against only 10 percent favoring one (presumably Palestinian) state and 32 percent for confederation or other solutions. Clearly support for Hamas under current conditions does not always mean support for the Hamas program of “armed struggle” and the destruction of Israel.

The PSR analysts point out that support for the two-state solution decreases when it is posed as a for-or-against question, under current conditions, rather than as a general preference among other choices. In other words, it gains support when it is seen as a potential way out rather than as an immediate issue subject to judgment on where the other side stands at the moment.

And as previously argued, the main reason that Palestinians (and Israelis) have moved away from the two-state model is the conviction that the other side has given up on it. What we have is a self-fulfilling deadlock of mutual distrust.