Perspective 140. Netanyahu's "Day After": A Workable Framework?
Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu has at long last unveiled his plan for Gaza after the projected total defeat of Hamas. Basically, it envisions indefinite military occupation by Israel while “unaffiliated” Palestinians would handle civilian administration. Could such a scheme produce long-term stability?
No. Reimposing long-term Israeli occupation, after this brutal war, would be the surest path to revival of Hamas. Experts estimate that it would require a standing occupation force of 40,000-100,000 boots on the ground just to keep minimal order. And good luck finding credible Palestinian administrators who would openly work for the occupiers.
In perspective, it is true that the stated Israeli objective of uprooting Hamas as a military force and as the government of Gaza can only be achieved by occupying the entire territory. But preventing the re-emergence of Hamas, or forces like it, requires a long-term political solution that Netanyahu is doinig his best to avoid. A realistic long-term solution requires Palestinian self-determination, presumably in a form that Zionists should recognize: a state of their own.
Netanyahu’s plan specifically rejects a Palestinian state, probably because his political future rests on appeasing the far-right extremists in his coalition. He does not mention the Palestinian Authority, the obvious candidate for civilian administration in Gaza – in fact, the legal authority there under the Oslo accords. But since he has consistently acted to weaken the PA, even to the extent of propping up its Hamas opponents, this is no surprise.
To be sure, the PA is too weak, corrupt, and unpopular to assume control of Gaza in the near future, even were it to agree to do so under the protection of the Israeli army – which would undercut whatever credibility it still has among Palestinians. But there are reports of moves to organize a security force among PA supporters that could replace Israeli forces. Or there might be forces from Arab regimes that (whatever they say publicly) are quite happy to see Israel dismantle Hamas. New elections could legitimize and revitalize Palestinian self-government.
Would a Palestinian state, in Gaza and the West Bank, constitute a security threat to Israel? In perspective, this is an odd question. For decades the state of Israel survived against a coalition of Arab states that, on paper, were vastly more powerful. And now there is fear of a demilitarized Palestinian state that it would vastly outmatch?