Perspective 152. Phase 2 of Gaza Ceasefire: Will It Happen?

To Subscribers: In response to my request for feedback on last week’s satire, most wanted to remain with the previous format (like the piece below) with occasional forays into humor. And so it will be. It was also clear that the spoofs should be labeled as such (despite being dated in the future, not everyone realized immediately that “Pentagon Torn over Greenland” was not real – maybe there was too much verisimilitude). So when I have an inspiration for a satire, it will appear as a “Perversity” rather than as a “Perspective.” The Greenland satire is therefore officially Perversity 1.

There has also been a large influx of new readers, so let me remind everyone that you have access to all 151 previous Perspectives (and Perversity 1) on the website. And both old and new subscribers are encouraged to share these musings widely and invite others to join. Now: today’s Perspective:

Assume that Phase 1 of the Gaza ceasefire agreement plays out as scripted: 33 Israeli hostages (alive and dead) returned, hundreds of Palestinian prisoners released, and Israeli forces moved out of population centers. Will Phase 2 -- involving return of all the living hostages, even larger numbers of released prisoners, total Israeli withdrawal, and permanent ceasefire – begin as planned on March 2?

Probably not. I hope I’m wrong, but the problem remains what it has been since October 7, 2923: will Hamas remain in control or not? The ceasefire agreement does not address that issue! Nor has any credible alternative to Hamas been put forward during these sixteen months.

In its magnificent optimism, the ceasefire agreement provides that negotiations over the nitty-gritty of total hostage release for total withdrawal will begin by day 16 of Phase 1 and conclude by week 5. We passed day 16 last Monday, and the end of week 5 comes on Feb. 22, in another 16 days. Does anyone seriously believe that the future of Gaza will be settled by then?

Hamas won’t release the last of the hostages without guarantee of a lasting ceasefire, one that leaves it free to rebuild and (sooner or later) reassert control. Despite commitment to a permanent ceasefire, the current Israeli government remains committed to preventing this return to power, and that can only happen if there is something to replace Hamas.

Initially Prime Minister Netanyahu seemed to envision the Israeli army staying in place indefinitely. The ceasefire, if implemented as written, rules this out. So much for Option 1.

Option 2, obvious from the beginning, was to restore the Palestinian Authority, the legitimate authority under the Oslo accords. But the PA is weak and lacks legitimacy among Palestinians, even where it rules in the West Bank. In part this is due to Netanyahu’s past policy of bolstering Hamas (by allowing funding to reach it) while weakening the PA and thus keeping Palestinians divided in order to avoid a two-state solution. So much for Option 2 – under the current Israeli government.

Option 3 might be some kind of international force contributed by Arab states or others, perhaps with a UN mandate. There has been no movement on this front – and there are only 16 days to patch something together.

Option 4 – if one takes President Trump seriously – is that the United States take over Gaza and replace the Palestinians with a Middle Eastern Riviera. All this to be done, according to fawning acolytes, without American boots on the ground or federal funds.

Right. Good luck with that.

Some of the acolytes have hinted that this is just a negotiating tactic, in line with Trump’s transactional view of the world and his practice of bludgeoning and then taking only half. But who is he negotiating with? And what could possibly be a halfway point?

Never mind that this farce is vehemently opposed by all parties except the far right in Israel. Never mind that it gives new momentum to Hamas. Never mind that it would be a blatant violation of international law, comparable to past forced deportations such as those between Greece and Turkey in the 1920’s or the Armenians during World War I.

And never mind that it would be the final blow to a ceasefire that is already on life support.

What’s the alternative to Hamas? At the moment there is none.