Perspective 154. Can Netanyahu's Coalition Hold?

After the disaster of October 7, 2023, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s standing in Israeli opinion dropped sharply. But so long as he keeps his majority in the Knesset, he can hang on until November, 2026. What are the chances of his managing that?

Not great. His unwieldy coalition depends on two problematic pillars: three far-right parties (14 seats) and two haredi (ultra-orthodox) parties (18 seats). Either of these unruly blocs could bring down the government (68 seats of 120) and force new elections.

The far right would seem to be the immediate threat. In fact, one party (Jewish Power) has already bolted, leaving a bare majority of 62. And a second (Religious Zionists) threatens to leave the government if fighting in Gaza does not resume at the end of Phase 1 of the current ceasefire, ensuring the complete eradication of Hamas.

Since Phase 1 ends in three days, this seems rather ominous. But given that Netanyahu has made absolutely no move to finding an alternative to Hamas, chances are that he is safe on this score. Phase 2 will not happen, and the far right can hang on, loudly Trumpeting their support for the fantasy of evicting all Palestinians from Gaza (see previous Perspectives).

But in perspective, the government could well fall on the second front. With attention distracted by the war, a second crisis has been mounting, little noticed, and this time Netanyahu may not be able to bluff his way out.

The exemption of haredi men from military service has long been the festering sore of Israeli politics – and even more with the longest war in Israel’s history, a shortage of manpower, and repeated call-ups of reserves. Last year Israel’s High Court of Justice ruled that this exemption, to free young haredim for yeshiva (religious) study, had no legal basis. Draft notices were then sent to thousands of military-age haredim, but were largely ignored.

To get his majority, Netanyahu had to promise the two haredi parties to pass a law enshrining the exemption in law for full-time yeshiva students. Given strong opposition among non-haredi Israelis (85 percent of the public), the proposed law is still bottled up in committee.

Accordingly, the leader of one haredi party announced today (Feb. 27) that his party would leave the government if the law were not passed in two months. The leader of the second party had already announced that his party would leave if the law were not enacted before the state budget is passed. As it happens, if the state budget is not passed by the end of March, the government will fall anyway.

Whether Bibi can hold all this together remains to be seen.

But the non-haredi public should be relieved. According to Rabbi Moshe Maya of the Council of Torah Sages, the prayers of exempted yeshiva students are a priceless contribution to national security: “If not for Torah students, there would be many more fatalities.”