Perspective 156. Israeli Attack on Iranian Nuclear Plants: Coming Soon?

Iran continues to violate the 2015 agreement limiting its nuclear programs, having produced enough enriched uranium, near weapon-grade, for several nuclear bombs. Both the United States and Israel say they won’t allow an Iranian bomb. Will Israel, with U.S. support, strike the key facilities in the near future?

Very possibly. A window of opportunity has been created by Iran’s current vulnerability: loss or weakening of allies elsewhere, economic distress, and the (temporary) destruction of air defenses in the Israeli attack of October 2024. The major remaining constraint is the theoretical (but unlikely) success of Trump’s demand that Iran negotiate a new deal giving up even more than it had in 2015.

In perspective, there are two stages to building a bomb: acquiring the fissionable material needed (highly-enriched uranium or plutonium), and actual design and engineering of the weapon. Since the first stage is more difficult, non-proliferation efforts have focused on it as the key bottleneck for preventing states from building bombs. Iran, as a signatory of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), has its facilities for enriching uranium under inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Under the 2015 agreement, Iran was not to enrich uranium above the 3.67% level (weapon-grade is 90%). But when Trump withdrew the U.S. from the agreement, Iran declared that it, too, was no longer bound by it, and proceeded to enrich uranium (brazenly claiming a civilian use) – lately to 60%. This puts Iran weeks, or even days, from having enough fissionable material for its first nuclear weapon. The actual engineering of the weapon would add some months (or weeks?) to this.

The clear Iranian strategy, from the beginning, has been to develop a nuclear capability with the shortest possible “break-out time” – the time from when they “break out” from the NPT until they actually have a bomb. This time has now been reduced to the shortest-ever interval, which many find intolerable.

So will Iran kneel to Trump’s demands? Signs are not auspicious. When Trump made the same demand during his first term, Iran simply refused to negotiate. Ayatollah Khamenei has responded similarly this time around. Trump may be counting on the threat of Israeli attack to force Iran to the table, but even if that works the Iranians can stall negotiations indefinitely.

There are also a couple of constraints on the Israeli side. First, there is another war to finish, a war that is by no means ended. Secondly, successful destruction of the Fordow enrichment plant, 220 feet under a mountain, would probably require U.S. supply of a 15-ton “bunker-buster” and the airplane needed to deliver it.

But there are reliable reports that Netanyahu was ready in 2010, and in 2011, to hit Iran’s enrichment sites, and was only held back by his military and intelligence advisors. Would he hesitate now, when it is in his interest to keep the pot boiling?