Perspective 162. Gaza: Is the End in Sight?
The phased cease-fire broke down in March (as predicted here), and Israel has renewed its assault on Hamas in Gaza. Will this bring the war to a conclusion soon?
No. Israeli forces may (for now) demolish Hamas militarily, but without a political resolution there will be no peace. To date – as also said here – there has been no serious move toward replacing the rule of Hamas with something acceptable to both Gazans and Israel.
In perspective, Israel posited three goals in responding to the barbaric Hamas attack of October 7, 2023. The first (supposedly) was return of the 251 hostages taken by Hamas that day. But presently 59 hostages (fewer than half still alive) remain in Gaza. They were to have been released in the second phase of the cease-fire, but only with complete Israeli withdrawal. And this would have compromised the other two goals.
The second aim was destroying Hamas militarily. This, it is claimed, has been largely achieved, with half of 40,000 Hamas fighters killed and 20 of 22 battalions “dismantled.” But Hamas can reconstitute its forces during periods of quiet, and is now, it is said, back to a force of 40,000.
Israel’s third goal, an alternative to Hamas rule, has not been seriously pursued by anyone. Indefinite Israeli occupation seems to be Netanyahu’s answer, but this is just a recipe for continued conflict.
Hamas hints that it will surrender control to a non-political “technocratic” Palestinian government – but it will not disarm. So much for that.
Arab states have endorsed the idea of a non-Hamas Palestinian government, but have done little to bring it about. And everyone agrees that the Palestinian Authority, the logical candidate, can’t do it. It has little support in the West Bank, let alone In Gaza.
Firebrands in the Israeli government talk of “voluntary migration” of Gazans. They were encouraged by Trump’s Gazan Riviera fantasy, which even Trump hasn’t mentioned lately. Anyway, ain’t gonna happen.
So in the end the hawks prevail: “Give war a chance!”