Perspective 165. Prime Minister Netanyahu: On the Way Out?

Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu’s remaining days in office are numbered in any event. When the Gaza war began, he still had over three years remaining before being forced to call new elections, so long as his coalition held. Now that he has prolonged the war for over 600 days, partly to avoid elections, the count to a reckoning is down to 16 months. But could it happen before then?

Yes, it could. Bibi’s coalition is dependent on the far right, which threatens to bring down the government if he accepts a permanent cease-fire, and the haredim (ultra-orthodox) who threaten to bring down the government if it doesn’t pass a law enshrining the exemption of their young men from military service.

In perspective, elections either now or in 16 months will almost certainly end Bibi’s hold on office. The Israeli public will demand a full official inquiry into the catastrophe of October 7, 2023, with attention focused on Bibi’s misbegotten strategy of allowing funds to reach Hamas in order to keep Palestinians divided and avoid a Palestinian state.

The most recent polls, four days ago, showed Bibi’s coalition dropping from the present 68 seats (of 120) to 48-49. Opposition parties polled 71-72 seats, with former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett emerging as the most likely next Prime Minister. Bennett, a figure of the Israeli right, would have to build a coalition from left to right – but given the hatred of Netanyahu among many party leaders, that is not impossible.

What could propel an early election is a new crisis with the haredi parties, who represent about 15 percent of the public and hold 15 percent of Knesset seats. After years of court battles, last year the Israeli Supreme Court ruled that the government could no longer exempt ultra-orthodox religious students from military service – a practice that in 1948 applied to only a few hundred, but now exempts tens of thousands.

Needless to say this exemption is hugely unpopular among the other 85 percent of Israelis, including religious Jews who do serve in the army. So while Bibi had to promise the haredim a law making the exemption official and permanent, he faces resistance within his own coalition. Attempts to draft a law satisfying both sides have so far failed to bridge the gap.

Meanwhile draft notices have been sent to over 25,000 young haredim, of whom only a few hundred reported for duty. Another 50,000 draft notices are to be sent soon, since the military – which is totally against the exemption – is strapped for manpower as the war drags on and there is exhaustion and discontent among reserve soldiers repeatedly called up for service.

So Bibi is caught between a rock and a hard place. The government has so far been slow in sanctioning the draft-dodgers – numbering now in the thousands – while the army and the courts demand action. But if he can’t hold on to the haredi parties, he’ll have to face the electorate sooner rather than later.

But don’t count Bibi out yet. He is a master at creating distractions and diversions, most recently by declaring the intention of having Israeli forces remain in Gaza indefinitely and thus prolonging the war.

As noted in this space before, an Israeli attack on nuclear sites in Iran is likely in the months to come if Trump (as is likely) does not get a deal with the Ayatollah that is better than the one from which he (foolishly) withdrew.

It would also help Bibi keep the pot boiling.

You read it here.