Perspective 167 Democracies in Decline: The U.S. Included?

Political scientists who try to measure the strength of democracies around the globe have recorded a sharp decline in democracy worldwide since the turn of the century. Has the United States been a part of this trend?

Yes. V-Dem, the most comprehensive survey, places the United States at the end of 2020 at its weakest on a scale of democracy since 1976 (when the U.S. was still struggling with the aftermath of Watergate). Most of this drop occurred in the first term of President Trump, when the key index of liberal democracy fell by seven percent in four years, reflecting an increase in groups challenging the rule of law, the weakening of judicial review, and presidential domination of party primary elections.

In perspective, V-Dem (the Varieties of Democracy Institute) measures over 600 attributes of democracy in 202 nations, drawing on input from over 4200 experts across these nations. At the end of 2024 only 12 percent of the world’s population lived in Liberal Democracies as defined by V-Dem. The United States was still in this top group, despite its decline, but ranked only 24th of 32. In the long view, U.S. democracy has always been relatively weaker on distribution of resources (health, education) and the power of interest groups and the wealthy.

Another respected index of democracy, the annual reports of the Economist Intelligence Unit, confirms the general decline of democracy and concludes that only 6.6 percent of the world live in what it defines as “Full Democracies.” This does not include the United States, which since 2016 has been demoted to the second tier of “Flawed Democracies” (that’s where Israel is as well).

These surveys extend only to the end of 2024. What can we expect when governments installed since then are evaluated at year’s end? V-Dem notes that the trend to autocracy in other nations has had certain characteristic markers:

 Replacing civil servants with personal loyalists

 Purging the top ranks of the military

 Using the judicial system to prosecute rivals and critics

 Curbing independent media by pressure and intimidation

 Closing agencies established by the legislature

So what can we expect in next year’s reports? Just another decline? Or something closer to autocracy?