Perspective 169. Palestinian Opinion: Room for Negotiation?
Negotiations for a temporary ceasefire in the Gaza war have apparently collapsed. Behind this is the fact that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has strong motives to prolong the fighting and keep his government—dependent on far-right extremists -- in power. But when the fighting finally does end, will the war-ravaged Gaza Palestinians be in any condition to shape a new stable future, without Hamas?
Yes, possibly. There is encouraging news in polls of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, the most reputable Palestinian polling organization.
In perspective, and rather remarkably, the PCPSR has surveyed Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank throughout the war, in face-to-face interviews of professionally chosen samples. In the past, its results have stood up well against other indicators such as elections (when they were still being held).
The latest poll, two months ago, confirmed a continuing decline in Gazan support of the atrocious Hamas attack of Oct. 7, 2023 – down to 37% as opposed to 71% shortly after the onslaught. Support for the attack in the West Bank , largely spared the scourge of war, was higher at 59%, bit this was also a decline, from 82%.
Amazingly, and despite the polling being carried out in Hamas-controlled territory, 48% of Gazans endorsed anti-Hamas demonstrations there, and 47% favored the eviction of Hamas leaders. Fully 43% said they would consider emigrating from Gaza at the end of the war.
Gazan support for a return of Palestinian Authority control of Gaza has risen to a new high of 46%, despite the overwhelming unpopularity of PA President Mahmoud Abbas (81% of all Palestinians want him gone).
Support for a two-state solution to the conflict remained steady in both Gaza and the West Bank, at around 40%. However, when the question is framed as an independent Palestinian state within the pre-1967 lines, support rises to 61%. And it is clear that among Palestinians, as among Israelis, support for a two-state solution rises when it seems that a majority on the other side is ready to embrace it.
So there is room for negotiation – on the disarmament of Hamas, the creation of a (Arab?) security force to take its place, and the eventual establishment of a credible Palestinian government in Gaza, based on free elections. What’s are the chances of such an outcome?
Under the current Israeli government, next to none.
Well stated, as always. Thank you for posting.
The main negotiators in both the Biden and Trump administrations have asserted unequivocally that it was Hamas that prevented negotiations from succeeding. Yet the media continues to put the onus on Netanyahu as if Hamas was invisible. Netanyahu may want to stay in power but he is in alignment with every Israeli who do not want to go back to the situation before October 7 where Hamas used millions of dollars of international aid to build a tunnel system longer than the Grand Canyon is long where they could hoard fuel and food and hide behind their citizens who they openly used as fodder while they focused on one goal - the elimination of Jews and the Jewish state who left Gaza some 20 years ago.