Perspective 199. Will the War Keep Netanyahu in Power?
The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has the support of over two-thirds of Israelis, given fear of potential Iranian nuclear weapons. Does this give Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu a leg up in elections due by the end of October?
No. The latest poll has Likud, his party, still hovering around 25 seats (of 120), if the election were held now. Likud currently holds 32 seats, plus 4 seats from a smaller right-wing party with which it has formed a joint list.
But despite this drop, apparent since the debacle of October 7, 2023, it is not evident that a new government after elections could exclude Netanyahu. How is this so? We need to look at the structure of Israeli politics.
In perspective, right-wing and religious parties have dominated in Israel since the “upheaval” of 1977, almost half a century ago. Only in one election since then did the two blocs together fail to win at least half of the seats. In the last election they won 74, enabling Bibi to stitch together a government based on Likud plus the haredi (ultra-orthodox) parties (18 seats) and the far right (14 seats), for a majority of 68.
Why can’t Netanyahu count on the inbuilt right and religious majority to keep him in power? The poll predicts that the two blocs would win a high of 79 seats.
But key leaders on the right are reluctant to work with Bibi, following bitter experience. These splits explain why Israel had to hold four elections in two years (2019-2021), with Bibi scrambling to put together rickety coalitions.
The recent poll has the current coalition winning just 50 seats (Likud’s 25 plus 16 for the haredi parties plus 9 on the far right). Two other right-wing parties would hold 29 seats, enough to put Bibi back in power – if they could overcome their aversion to working with him.
Would a coalition without Netanyahu be possible? Without the Arab parties (10 seats) the opposition parties all together would have 60 seats – one short of a majority. Tantalizing, but problematic. Leaders on the non-Bibi right have opposed a coalition with the Arab parties, even if they could work with Jewish parties in the center and left – not a given, despite shared distrust of Netanyahu.
And Netanyahu will be doing his best to pull enough of the right back into his fold. This could end up as a mess matching or even overshadowing the quagmire of 2019-2021.
And a government without Bibi? Don’t count on it.