Perspective 54. The Democratic Debacle: Nothing Special?

The chattering class has labeled state and local election results last week as a disaster for Democrats and for the Biden administration. But are these results within the normal range for off-year elections in the first year of a new Presidency?

Yes. When the Presidency changes hands between the two parties, in recent history the losing party has typically rebounded on the state and local level, where the disgruntled can express their frustration.

In perspective, this has long been recognized in the mid-term elections held two years into the President's term. But it is also true in "off-year" elections held during the new President's first year in office.

In 2017, after Trump replaced Obama, Democrats picked up the only Senate seat at stake as well as the governorship of New Jersey (also featured in this year's chatter) and 42 seats in state legislatures. Democrats also did better than previously in votes on open House seats. Analysts described the result as a Democratic victory.

The previous flip of the White House was in 2009, when Obama took over from Bush Jr. In November elections that year, the Republicans dominated: for example, winning all statewide races in supposedly Democratic Massachusetts.

When Bush took over from Clinton in 2001, the Republicans lost two governorships that November: New Jersey and Virginia. Democrats also gained control of both chambers of the New Jersey Legislature. Is this beginning to look familiar?

The same two states were highlighted in the previous off-year election after a change of parties in the Presidency, in 1993 with Clinton's defeat of Bush Sr. Both New Jersey and Virginia replaced Democratic governors with Republicans. This result might have something to do with the fact that only these two states had gubernatorial elections that year.

With relatively few elections of national import held in odd-numbered years, it is no surprise that so much attention is lavished on those that are held then. Thus the prominence of New Jersey and Virginia, then and now. And also not surprisingly, these few elections become a barometer of unhappiness for those lamenting their defeat just a few months earlier.

One of the most quoted remarks in Washington is Tip O'Neill's dictum that "all politics is local." But maybe in the months following a dramatic Presidential change, for a moment all politics becomes national?