Perspective 85. The Israeli Election: A Turn to the Right?

The recent Israeli election heralds the return of Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu to the reins of power. Surely this signifies a significant shift to the right in the Israeli electorate?

No. Right and religious parties, which act as a bloc, received about 57 percent of the vote, compared with 58.7 percent in the previous election in 2021. They did win two more seats in the Knesset, from 72 to 74, because two left-wing lists narrowly missed the threshold for representation and the seats they would have won were allocated to other parties. (These 74 seats also include the four won by a rightist faction within the National Unity party.)

The Likud, Bibi’s party, actually declined from 24.2 percent of the vote in 2021 to 23.4 percent this time – but won two more seats (from 30 to 32) because of the left-wing collapse.

In perspective, right and religious parties have been dominant since the turn of the century, winning a clear majority of seats in all elections but one. The only reason they were not able to form a stable government following the four elections in 2019-2021 was because some on the right refused to work with Bibi.

So the real story in this election was the eclipse of these anti-Bibi elements on the right. The four pro-Bibi parties went from 42.1 percent of the vote to 48.4 percent, mainly as a result of the coalescence of three far right parties into one list, the Religious Zionists, who went from 6 seats to 14. This was a merger brokered by Netanyahu, in order to avoid right-wing votes being wasted on lists that did not meet the 3.25 percent threshold (equal to four seats).

On the other hand, Yamina, the anti-Bibi party of Naftali Bennett that won 6.2 percent of the vote in 2021, was wiped out. Its remnant element, Habayit Hayehudi, won only 1.2 percent and the number of anti-Bibi Knesset members on the right was reduced from 17 to 9 (including the faction within National Unity). The gain for the Religious Zionists, from 5.1 to 10.8 percent, clearly came mainly from the 5 percent who abandoned the anti-Bibi right.

And here, then, is the real change wrought by this election. Voters to the right of Likud, reacting to the inclusion of an Arab party in the government and the 2021 Hamas war with Arab unrest within Israeli cities, turned to the party willing to work with Bibi.

So while there has been no profound shift ideologically, the election results do have the potential to bring about profound transformations in Israeli politics and society. For one thing, for the first time fully half of a government coalition – 32 of 64 – will be representatives of religious parties. The implications for religious freedom and reform are dismal.

As noted, the final piece of the puzzle was the left-wing collapse, which enabled Netanyahu’s bloc, with only 48.4 percent of the vote, to commandeer 64 of the 120 Knesset seats. Two lists, Meretz and the Arab nationalist party Balad, narrowly failed to make the cut and the 8 seats they would have won were redistributed, giving Bibi his majority. While many formerly leftist votes went to the centrist Yesh Atid – which gained 7 seats – in large part this was self-inflicted damage due to the failure of the left and Arab parties to unite, as the far right did, in order to avoid being eliminated by default.