Perspective 87. Will Netanyahu Attack Iran?

As Benjamin Netanyahu organizes for his reincarnation as Prime Minister of Israel, attention has focused on the role of far-right flamethrowers in the incoming government. This is quite justifiable. But will the real crunch come when Bibi launches an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities?

Quite possibly. Attempts to restore the Iranian nuclear deal are on life support, Iranians are close to having a critical mass of fissile material, and “adults in the room” who blocked previous urges to bomb will be conspicuously few and far between in the new regime.

In perspective, Israel has already knocked out nuclear facilities in two hostile Middle Eastern nations: Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007. Both attacks are, in retrospect, considered successes in maintaining Israeli security. Bibi, looking to make his mark as defender of Israel in what is likely to be his last hurrah, will not want to leave this more deadly threat unanswered.

The nuclear deal of 2015 had the Iranians boxed in, but Donald Trump’s brainless withdrawal from the agreement gave them the green light to renew production of fissile material. Previously limited to a tiny amount of 3.67% enriched uranium, Iran now has (according to the watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency) enough enriched at the 60% level for its first bomb (if it is further enriched to 90%, potentially in a matter of weeks). So much for Trump’s strategic acumen.

Iran still has to weaponize this material and fit it on a missile – a matter of months, up to two years, by most estimates – but it is a lethal threat to Israel as well as Iran’s other neighbors. These neighbors (Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, Turkey, Egypt) would no doubt like to see Israel take out Iranian nuclear facilities, though they would of course publicly condemn such an attack.

Again in perspective, the situation is similar to that of 2010-2012, also when Netanyahu was in power. According to reliable sources (previously cited here) there were three occasions on which the Prime Minister wanted to order an attack but was held back by a solid block of military and intelligence advisors as well as lack of support in his own cabinet (except for Ehud Barak, but Barak also eventually changed his mind).

The “adults in the room” knew that the chances of success were limited. Iran’s two main facilities, Natanz and Fordow, are buried deep underground and Israel lacks the “bunker-buster” weapons that would ensure success. And the retaliation against Israeli cities would be ruinous. The Arrow missile defense might intercept at least some of the missiles launched from Iran, but those launched from Lebanon by Iranian client Hizballah (estimated at over 100,000) would overwhelm the shorter-range Israeli defensive systems.

But in Bibi’s coalition as it is shaping up, there is only one key figure with a professional background in security matters. Bibi himself has hinted, in one interview, that with the current protests in Iran the regime has been weakened and that this may be the time to take it on. In what may have been a trial balloon, a former minister close to Netanyahu (Tzachi Hanegbi) has publicly stated that Bibi will pursue a military solution if no other solution is found.

If that happens, the other depravities in the new order will seem trivial in comparison.

I can imagine one possible reaction to what I’ve written: OK, wise guy, how would you deal with this? Well, my recourse is very simple. Sanctions. Sanctions brought the Iranians to the deal in 2015, where they crossed (by their own account) all kinds of red lines that they swore they would never cross. Of course having Russia and China in on the sanctions was critical. But even with Russia on the other side, sanctions are proving very important in the case of the Ukraine war. The world has become increasingly interdependent, and the Russian economy is beginning to crack. Stay tuned: sanctions will be the best instrument for international justice. Better than war, anyway.