Perspective 166 Are Iranian Nukes Gone For Good?

The scale of Israel’s attack on Iran’s military infrastructure is vast, taking in dozens of nuclear-related facilities as well as nuclear scientists, top military commanders, air defenses, and missile sites. Does this put an end to the threat of Iran developing nuclear weapons?

No. It will certainly slow the Iraniana down, but as this is written it appears that a significant part of the nuclear infrastructure may survive. And even if Israel manages in the next few days to make this infrastructure unusable for a time, the Iranian regime – enraged by its humiliation – can and will rebuild.

In perspective, past Israeli attacks on nuclear reactors in Iraq (1981) and Syria (2007) did put an end to the intentions of Saddam Hussein and Bashir al-Assad to produce plutonium for a bomb. But the Iranian program is much more advanced and was from the outset built to withstand attack. So when the Iranians rebuild, everything will be put even further underground. At best, will Israel have to strike every decade or so just to keep the lawn mowed?

The big question – regarding which there is so far no hard news – is the Fordow enrichment facility, buried deep under a mountain. The Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. says there is a plan to destroy Fordow, and maybe this plan will be unveiled in days or hours to come. But in the meantime, the experts say that only the U.S. has a bomb big enough and a plane big enough to carry such a bomb.

And after the dust settles, will Iran remain in the Non-Proliferation Treaty and subject to international inspection, or will it withdraw as it can legally, and as North Korea did? The hard-liners in Teheran will have the upper hand.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu may call on the Iranians to throw out their government, but in the midst of massive attacks on the country his call for revolt is pathetic.

Before Trump foolishly withdrew from the previous agreement, Iran was boxed in and producing enriched uranium only at the low 3.67% fuel grade. Now it possesses enriched uranium at the 60% level, days away from weapon-grade.

And if Trump believes that the Israeli attack will lead to a deal better than what Obama obtained, then his understanding of the Middle East is even more infantile than previously imagined.

This may get worse, far worse, before (if ever) it gets better.