The scale of Israel’s attack on Iran’s military infrastructure is vast, taking in dozens of nuclear-related facilities as well as nuclear scientists, top military commanders, air defenses, and missile sites.
Your position is that Trump is foolish because of his withdrawal from a treaty that kept enrichment at 3.67% fuel grade. You fail to point out that Iran was violating the JCPOA agreement even prior to US withdrawal by building secret facilities than enriched beyond this level. Additionally, the treaty rewarded Iran with tens of billions of dollars of 'relief; vthat was used. to fund, train and arm proxy terrorist groups throughout the Middle East (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and many more...). These groups directly threatened America and her allies and are directly linked to all the conflicts past and present in the Middle East.
Everything considered, we were far better with the JCPOA than after Trump gave the Iranians an excuse to violate it wholesale. We did not give the Iranians relief; it was their money that had been frozen. They tried to build secretly twice and were caught both times. Again, we were much better off with the JCPOA.
Really????....Yes it was there money, FROZEN, which we unfroze and they took it and built hospitals and universities--Just kidding- they funded terrorists and destabilized the region and continued to violate the JCPOA, built more nuclear infrastructure, and counted the time down till it sunset ( recall that section) and then Iran was free and clear!
Did you miss that section of the deal or are you just trying to obfuscate?
You can criticize Trump and his actions all day long but to cast JCPOA as a bulwark against Iranian nukes is just foolhardy or outright mendacity.
Why did you leave out critical needed info in your piece that if discussed would upend the argument? Do you agree there was sunsetting, legally the Iranians could do whatever they wanted after 10-15 years,
the Iranians were cheating, and if you concede those things why were they left out?
Thank you for a more civil response. But most of your points are mistaken. Iran is not free to do what it wants after certain parts of the agreement expire. It is still bound by the NPT and can be subjected to renewed sanctions if it is suspected of violations. The IAEA has verified its adherence to the terms of the JCPOA, up to the point when Trump gave them the excuse to excede those terms. Iran was not cheating before then; it is not possible to hide their enrichment activities within the IAEA regime. I don't know where you get y our supposed facts, but please do some more serious research if and before responding.
Please do not say case closed like lecturing to a middle school class
The NPT is not the same as the jcpoa and you still have not conceded or denied that the 2015 deal sunset and when sunset happened, it did not stop iran from enriching.. And they would have legal backing to enrich.. They followed the deal!
Look the Obama deal was a foolhardy naive agreement cause Obama wanted Iran to counter Israel's influence and he hoped that 10-15 years of playing footy with the mullahs would turn them into global citizens who just wanted to trade with the west and get rich. He hoped they would grow out of there terrorist genocidal ambitions to destroy Israel.
Very naive and foolish. If the Obama deal was still in play Iran would be richer and within a few years of legally being able to enrich.
Please do not let your dislike of Trump cloud judgement of a very faulty band aid like jcpoa. You can do better
The 2015 JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) included sunset provisions, meaning certain restrictions on Iran's nuclear program were designed to expire over time. These provisions were a major point of contention, with critics arguing they would allow Iran to gradually acquire nuclear weapons after the restrictions ended.
Here's a breakdown of the sunset provisions:
Centrifuge Limits: For 10 years, Iran was limited to operating 5,060 IR-1 centrifuges, with a total of 6,104 IR-1s allowed. Excess centrifuges were dismantled and stored under IAEA monitoring.
Enrichment Level: For 15 years, Iran's enrichment level was capped at 3.67%.
Stockpile Limits: For 15 years, Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium was limited to 300 kg.
Missile Restrictions: A provision in UN Security Council Resolution 2231 (which endorsed the JCPOA) called upon Iran not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, and this provision was set to expire on October 18.
The sunset provisions were a key reason for the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, with the Trump administration citing the sunset clause as unacceptable, according to the BBC. While the agreement itself doesn't expire until October 2025, the expiration of these restrictions has significant implications for the future of the Iranian nuclear program.
Key restrictions within the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), including those on Iran's enrichment capacity, were designed to expire in phases over a 10 to 15 year period. These are often referred to as "sunset clauses". The JCPOA was reached in 2015, so the major limitations on enrichment capacity and uranium stockpiles would have been lifted in 2030, 15 years later.
However, the US withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, according to Wikipedia. While Iran formally remained part of the agreement, it began exceeding limits set by the JCPOA in 2019.
The UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorsed the JCPOA, outlined a timeline for the termination of various restrictions. A significant milestone was reached on October 18, 2023, when all remaining nuclear-related sanctions against Iran under this resolution expired. This included the expiration of restrictions on ballistic missiles and related technologies.
In summary, while the core agreement related to enrichment capacity was meant to sunset gradually over 15 years (until 2030), the expiration of key restrictions has been accelerated, effectively ending the JCPOA as initially intended.
One key piece of information hat this writer just somehow forgot to include is that the JCPOA sunset after 10-15 years, depending on the clause, in which Iran could legally enrich and centrifuge away with international backing..after taking the cash.
That 2015 deal was lousy and the author must know that
Trump and others may or may not get a deal or a better deal, or worse deal, but 2015 JCPOA did NOT box Iran in or stop them or contain them..Just delayed them while they took in cash, sold oil, etc
I am likely overly exercised on this with the current events. However, although 10-15 years is something, the payout for that time is billions of dollars to a terrorist regime and best I can tell if they abides but the agreement, or cheated without getting caught red handed, they then could enrich and claim to be within their rights legally. So they take billions, wait a few years and then go nuclear. Horrible deal. Now Trump may do worse.. Not saying he will do better.. But the Obama deal seems really bad and dangerous and at the least, unless I am proven wrong re the sunset provisions, I would hope a writer would be open about that, say we got 10 years and therefore worth it
Bad revisionism I think mixed in with some TDS to lionize jcpoa
Bottom line like every president has asserted the current Iranian regime cannot have nuclear weapons.. Not now and not in 10-15 years
You (DML) are obviously quite exercised about the JCPOA so I submit this comment with some trepidation, but I'm not clear on why the sunset component makes the whole JCPOA lousy. It seems to me that even if this "only" caused a 10-15 year delay in Iranian actions toward enrichment and weapons grade uranium isn't that a 10-15 year period in which we (the rational international actors) could work toward making Iran see that there are better ways to spend their money? Ten to 15 years when we wouldn't need to be focused on an imminent Israeli-Iranian nuclear war?
I've heard the sunsetting component of the agreement derided before but it seems to me that any international agreement is always subject to sunsetting (when any of the parties chooses to sunset its compliance)........so what's the fatal flaw here?
Your position is that Trump is foolish because of his withdrawal from a treaty that kept enrichment at 3.67% fuel grade. You fail to point out that Iran was violating the JCPOA agreement even prior to US withdrawal by building secret facilities than enriched beyond this level. Additionally, the treaty rewarded Iran with tens of billions of dollars of 'relief; vthat was used. to fund, train and arm proxy terrorist groups throughout the Middle East (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and many more...). These groups directly threatened America and her allies and are directly linked to all the conflicts past and present in the Middle East.
Everything considered, we were far better with the JCPOA than after Trump gave the Iranians an excuse to violate it wholesale. We did not give the Iranians relief; it was their money that had been frozen. They tried to build secretly twice and were caught both times. Again, we were much better off with the JCPOA.
Really????....Yes it was there money, FROZEN, which we unfroze and they took it and built hospitals and universities--Just kidding- they funded terrorists and destabilized the region and continued to violate the JCPOA, built more nuclear infrastructure, and counted the time down till it sunset ( recall that section) and then Iran was free and clear!
Did you miss that section of the deal or are you just trying to obfuscate?
You can criticize Trump and his actions all day long but to cast JCPOA as a bulwark against Iranian nukes is just foolhardy or outright mendacity.
I do not appreciate being accused of mendacity. If you are unable to discuss these issues in a civil and rational way, go spread your bile elsewhere.
We were better under the JCPOA than we are now. Case closed.
No bile intended
I would like to be civil
Why did you leave out critical needed info in your piece that if discussed would upend the argument? Do you agree there was sunsetting, legally the Iranians could do whatever they wanted after 10-15 years,
the Iranians were cheating, and if you concede those things why were they left out?
Thank you for a more civil response. But most of your points are mistaken. Iran is not free to do what it wants after certain parts of the agreement expire. It is still bound by the NPT and can be subjected to renewed sanctions if it is suspected of violations. The IAEA has verified its adherence to the terms of the JCPOA, up to the point when Trump gave them the excuse to excede those terms. Iran was not cheating before then; it is not possible to hide their enrichment activities within the IAEA regime. I don't know where you get y our supposed facts, but please do some more serious research if and before responding.
Disagree on the facts
Please do not say case closed like lecturing to a middle school class
The NPT is not the same as the jcpoa and you still have not conceded or denied that the 2015 deal sunset and when sunset happened, it did not stop iran from enriching.. And they would have legal backing to enrich.. They followed the deal!
Look the Obama deal was a foolhardy naive agreement cause Obama wanted Iran to counter Israel's influence and he hoped that 10-15 years of playing footy with the mullahs would turn them into global citizens who just wanted to trade with the west and get rich. He hoped they would grow out of there terrorist genocidal ambitions to destroy Israel.
Very naive and foolish. If the Obama deal was still in play Iran would be richer and within a few years of legally being able to enrich.
Please do not let your dislike of Trump cloud judgement of a very faulty band aid like jcpoa. You can do better
More from professor Google
The 2015 JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) included sunset provisions, meaning certain restrictions on Iran's nuclear program were designed to expire over time. These provisions were a major point of contention, with critics arguing they would allow Iran to gradually acquire nuclear weapons after the restrictions ended.
Here's a breakdown of the sunset provisions:
Centrifuge Limits: For 10 years, Iran was limited to operating 5,060 IR-1 centrifuges, with a total of 6,104 IR-1s allowed. Excess centrifuges were dismantled and stored under IAEA monitoring.
Enrichment Level: For 15 years, Iran's enrichment level was capped at 3.67%.
Stockpile Limits: For 15 years, Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium was limited to 300 kg.
Missile Restrictions: A provision in UN Security Council Resolution 2231 (which endorsed the JCPOA) called upon Iran not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, and this provision was set to expire on October 18.
The sunset provisions were a key reason for the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, with the Trump administration citing the sunset clause as unacceptable, according to the BBC. While the agreement itself doesn't expire until October 2025, the expiration of these restrictions has significant implications for the future of the Iranian nuclear program.
Key restrictions within the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), including those on Iran's enrichment capacity, were designed to expire in phases over a 10 to 15 year period. These are often referred to as "sunset clauses". The JCPOA was reached in 2015, so the major limitations on enrichment capacity and uranium stockpiles would have been lifted in 2030, 15 years later.
However, the US withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, according to Wikipedia. While Iran formally remained part of the agreement, it began exceeding limits set by the JCPOA in 2019.
The UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorsed the JCPOA, outlined a timeline for the termination of various restrictions. A significant milestone was reached on October 18, 2023, when all remaining nuclear-related sanctions against Iran under this resolution expired. This included the expiration of restrictions on ballistic missiles and related technologies.
In summary, while the core agreement related to enrichment capacity was meant to sunset gradually over 15 years (until 2030), the expiration of key restrictions has been accelerated, effectively ending the JCPOA as initially intended.
Yes from a Google search but please do better
One key piece of information hat this writer just somehow forgot to include is that the JCPOA sunset after 10-15 years, depending on the clause, in which Iran could legally enrich and centrifuge away with international backing..after taking the cash.
That 2015 deal was lousy and the author must know that
Trump and others may or may not get a deal or a better deal, or worse deal, but 2015 JCPOA did NOT box Iran in or stop them or contain them..Just delayed them while they took in cash, sold oil, etc
I think you're points are valid. I wish the substack writer made them
However I think hoping to influence the Islamic republic to turn away from destroying Israel is sheer folly and was Obama critical error
Present situation is horrible yes as well
I am likely overly exercised on this with the current events. However, although 10-15 years is something, the payout for that time is billions of dollars to a terrorist regime and best I can tell if they abides but the agreement, or cheated without getting caught red handed, they then could enrich and claim to be within their rights legally. So they take billions, wait a few years and then go nuclear. Horrible deal. Now Trump may do worse.. Not saying he will do better.. But the Obama deal seems really bad and dangerous and at the least, unless I am proven wrong re the sunset provisions, I would hope a writer would be open about that, say we got 10 years and therefore worth it
Bad revisionism I think mixed in with some TDS to lionize jcpoa
Bottom line like every president has asserted the current Iranian regime cannot have nuclear weapons.. Not now and not in 10-15 years
I do apologize for any rudeness, but unless you dispute those opinions above how could you leave that out of this specific substack and why??
You (DML) are obviously quite exercised about the JCPOA so I submit this comment with some trepidation, but I'm not clear on why the sunset component makes the whole JCPOA lousy. It seems to me that even if this "only" caused a 10-15 year delay in Iranian actions toward enrichment and weapons grade uranium isn't that a 10-15 year period in which we (the rational international actors) could work toward making Iran see that there are better ways to spend their money? Ten to 15 years when we wouldn't need to be focused on an imminent Israeli-Iranian nuclear war?
I've heard the sunsetting component of the agreement derided before but it seems to me that any international agreement is always subject to sunsetting (when any of the parties chooses to sunset its compliance)........so what's the fatal flaw here?
Thanks for listening.